In the run up to the US presidential election in November this year, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation GOP primary is set to be held on Wednesday. This comes a week after former US president and Republican leader Donald Trump secured his first crucial victory in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Now, the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is down to two major candidates — Nikki Haley and Donald Trump, the Associated Press reported.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped his bid just two days before New Hampshire’s primary. He backed his bitter rival Donald Trump over former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. DeSantis was once seen as Donald Trump’s biggest obstacle in the GOP primary.

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How important is New Hampshire primary?

The contest between Trump and Haley is expected to be closer than the result in Iowa last week.

This is the scenario Donald Trump’s foes in the GOP have long sought. The New Hampshire primary is seen as the party’s and Haley’s last chance to stop Trump, who has so far dominated the race, the Associated Press reported.

Trump was impeached twice as president and is now facing four criminal cases. He, however, has succeeded in imposing his far-right brand on the entire Republican party, news agency AFP reported. Haley, a former South Carolina governor, is now the sole challenger to Trump.

Unless Haley pulls off a political miracle, Trump is seen as on course to repeat his domination in the first contest in Iowa. He had emerged as the front-runner in the Iowa Caucuses, overshadowing the competition.

If Trump wins the New Hampshire primary, he is likely to cruise through the remaining primaries to become the nominee to face President Joe Biden in November. Conversely, the Trump camp is aware that a close finish would send the opposite signal – that a hefty portion of the Republican electorate is still looking for someone else.

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But in case Haley “over-performs” on Tuesday, that could see her regain buzz in time for the next primary in her home state of South Carolina in late February, AFP reported. Her win in New Hampshire would amount to a political earthquake. It is likely to “energise the anti-Trump forces in the party”.

But even then, in the worst-case scenario, Trump would remain the favorite for the nomination to take on Democratic President Joe Biden in November. In another case, a close second-place finish by Haley would allow her to contend that the anti-Trump vote should coalesce around her – particularly now that DeSantis is out of the race.

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According to Reuters, a convincing Trump victory would be devastating for Haley, robbing her of any claim of viability. It would show that Trump’s support is so broad across the party that there would be little hope of derailing him.

A new Washington Post/Monmouth poll on Monday showed Trump backed by 52 percent in New Hampshire to Haley’s 34 percent, AFP reported. In contrast to Trump’s argument as president and now as candidate that the United States should reconsider historic alliances and even NATO membership, Haley has a traditional, hawkish Republican foreign policy.